Five teams are in the hunt for the AFL finals, three positions are left. Based on the rules of maths five cannot fit into three positions, meaning two miss out. Get ready for a nerve-racking sprint to the finish as the final eight is shaped in the final two rounds.
As stated, there are five teams still hunting for that wonderful ninth month of the year, September. St Kilda, Sydney, Fremantle, North Melbourne and Essendon are at varying degrees of safety and nervousness depending on their respective positions.
To understand the unease and volatility of the final three top 8 positions, let’s look at each side individually:
Fremantle (9 Wins 11 Losses 36pts 87.58%)
Run Home: Collingwood (H), Bulldogs (A)
While mathematically still a chance, a combination of tough games and a terrible injury list mean they probably won’t make the finals. Still a chance though if a few miracles happen.
Chance out of 10: Buckley’s.
North Melbourne (9 Wins 11 Losses 36pts %104.9).
Run Home: St Kilda (A), Richmond (H)
A good second half to the season has been marred with a terrible record against top 8 sides this season (only win was against Essendon). Beating St Kilda will set up a thrilling climax in the last game of the season against Richmond. They have talked the talk all year but can they finally walk the walk?
Chance out of 10: 5/10 (All comes down to result vs. St Kilda).
Essendon (10 Wins 10 Losses 1 Draw 42pts 99.67%)
Run Home: Port Adelaide (H), Bye
Should beat a dismal Port Adelaide and seal a place in September. Essendon should be more concerned about their boosting their percentage, which may cost them a home final due to how low it is. Still they will be playing in September.
Chance out of 10: 9.5/10 (Barring the unthinkable they need not have a nervous bye week)
Sydney Swans (10 Wins 9 Losses 1 Draw 42pts 106.13%)
Run Home: Geelong (A), Brisbane (H)
Should have sealed September ages ago if not for a form slump the last few weeks. Beating St Kilda was crucial as they will not win this week, and Brisbane is no longer a certain win. Still, a good first 16 weeks will see them scrape through.
Chance out of 10: 7/10 (Should play finals but job is not done yet)
St Kilda (10 Wins 9 Losses 1 Draw, 42pts, 108.37%)
Run Home: North Melbourne (H), Carlton (A)
Despite their percentage, ladder position and great 2 months of football, they could still miss out on the finals. North Melbourne is no dead certainty and Carlton at the MCG is a tough task considering their record at the MCG this season.
Add the fact their captain a key forward is clearly injured, this is tight bottom time for the club.
Chance out of 10: 5/10 (Like the Kangaroos, a 50/50 proposition)
In essence, the composition of the 2011 AFL finals series comes down to Saturday night when the Saints meet the Kangaroos.
All other sides are quite sure of their destiny, but this match will still have ramifications for placings and opponents in the makeup of the final eight.
It should make for a good fortnight of football, so stay tuned.