At least one commentator in the wash-up of Round 21 has suggested the top eight is settled. That couldn’t be further from the truth. While the top seven teams can be assured of playing finals footy, the final spot remains up for grabs.
Sydney, with the chance to make it their own on Sunday, became Richmond’s first victim in two months – and now they must face St Kilda and Geelong in the next two weeks.
Yep, eighth spot is definitely still up for grabs. Problem is, the Swans are hardly Robinson Crusoe when it comes to facing a form slump at the most important part of the season.
It’s almost as if no one wants to finish eighth.
Sydney are currently in eighth spot on 38 points and have lost six of their last eight matches. The latest loss was against the Tigers, which tells you all you need to know about the kind of form they’re in.
Fremantle, in ninth with 36 points, have lost four on the trot. A tough draw has been a factor, as has the absence of Aaron Sandilands, but at a crucial point of the season it seems as though they’ve gone missing.
North Melbourne, in tenth with 32 points, lost two straight heading into the bye over the weekend. Not as bad as the other two mobs (they looked alright against both Carlton and Hawthorn) but then again, they are the ones who need to cover the most ground.
When you look at it this way, it’s easy to wonder whether we should be granting any of these teams the right to play finals footy.
But anyway, the equation for each team now is as follows:
Sydney: St Kilda at ANZ, Geelong at Skilled, Brisbane at the SCG.
Fremantle: North Melbourne at Etihad, Collingwood at Patersons, Western Bulldogs at Etihad.
North Melbourne: Fremantle at Etihad, St Kilda at Etihad, Richmond at Etihad.
The first thing you notice is that all three teams should win their Round 24 matches (if they don’t, well, they definitely aren’t worthy of finals footy). So for the purposes of this exercise we are going to lock Round 24 in as a win for all three teams and focus on the next two weeks.
Here’s what each team needs to do.
Sydney need to win one of those two games and their spot is guaranteed (unless Freo somehow beat the Pies – Hawthorn did it on the eve of finals last year, but it’s still incredibly unlikely).
Freo need to beat North this weekend (unless they genuinely believe they can beat the Pies, that is).
North need to win both the next two games (and even then if Sydney win one of theirs it’s season over).
Right now only one team appears to have the “form” (if you can call it that) that makes you think they really want eighth spot. And that is the team (North) that can’t afford to drop a game and requires other results to fall their way also.
That said, recent history suggests those results will indeed fall their way so who knows.
When it’s all said and done, it will be the side that decided it truly wanted to play finals that will have gotten over the line.