Two teams at opposite ends of the momentum spectrum are set to battle for a crucial four points at the MCG tonight. Join us for live AFL scores and a blog of the Round 16 match between Essendon v Richmond from 7pm.
Last Saturday, Essendon and Richmond could not experience more contrasting fortunes. For one it was towering success, for the other an indelible low.
Two weeks ago the Bombers were horrible against a rampant Hawthorn. They got smashed and so did their reputation.
So when the Dons entered Etihad Stadium last Saturday night, they weren’t given much chance of staying within 30 points of the Cats.
And after Geelong pounced on an early three-goal lead there were fears expressed for Essendon. But the Bombers showed great tenacity, intensity and belief to initially open up a four-goal second-quarter advantage and then to hold off the fast-finishing Cats.
For all intents and purposes, Essendon caused the upset of the season when they lowered Geelong’s colours for the first time in 2011.
A few hours earlier and across Melbourne town, Richmond took on Carlton in what was always going to be a stern test for the boys from Punt Road.
The Tigers had decided to honour the Richmond members against one of their biggest rivals, in front of a big crowd and on a big stage.
It was a fantastic opportunity for the Richmond players to thank their fans – many of which had financially contributed to the “Fighting Tiger Fund” which was established to help Richmond clear their debt and pump money into the football department – by putting in a big effort against the top-four Blues.
But the performance the Tigers dished out was nothing short of embarrassing. It was the Richmond of old.
They lost to a team they hate by 103 points. Their percentage took a hit and so did their standing. But perhaps, the biggest fall was taken by those wearing yellow and black in the stands.
In a match where their support was meant to be honoured by a great Tigers effort, Richmond members were forced to watch their team get humiliated.
After what went down last week, there is an interesting sub-plot in tonight’s match: how do these two teams perform on the back of incredibly-emotional results.
Eighth-placed Essendon lost five games in succession before dethroning the Cats. They now must perform against a team that many expect them to beat.
Many would agree that is easy to get up and compete against the hunted, now the challenge for the Bombers is to repeat that effort against a team of much-lower quality.
The last time Essendon completed a humongous upset was in Round 20, 2009, when they beat the undefeated St Kilda. It the night Brian Taylor, calling the match for Fox Sports, ruptured his aorta.
The following week, Essendon travelled to Subi to face the (at the time) lowly Dockers. The Bombers got smashed by nine goals. I wonder if they’ll repeat that performance tonight.
For Richmond, their test lies in the form of something called ‘bounce-back ability’. Precisely, how well they rebound.
Losing by 100 points is not a good sign for a football team. Obviously, Richmond need to put in a much bigger effort but it will amount to nothing unless the players believe in a win. And belief, after a 17-goal loss, might not always be there to draw upon.
The Tigers (5-8-1 record in season 2011) have had their back-side handed to them on two previous occasions this year. In Round 3 against Hawthorn they got pummelled.
The following week, they met Collingwood and despite showing good signs, also got pummelled. The week after that, however, against North Melbourne, Richmond prevailed by nine points. On the basis of what we’ve seen this year, they do possess ‘bounce-back ability’.
But to what extent? That’s inconclusive.
Interestingly, these two teams met in the ‘Dreamtime at the G’ game earlier in the year. The Tigers got up that night by a couple of goals.
But Essendon were missing the likes of Heath Hocking, Jobe Watson, Jason Winderlich, Courtney Dempsey and Michael Hurley.
Tonight, Essendon are also injury depleted. They miss Dempsey, Watson, Winderlich, Cale Hooker, Sam Lonergan, Nathan Lovett-Murray, Andrew Welsh and Danny Myers.
And while I concede that all-bar Welsh missed last week, it is a paralysing injury list for any team. As such, the Bombers will need to call on guys like Hocking and Jake Melksham, both of whom were outstanding last week, to put in big performances.
The Tigers on the other hand, will be hoping for Jack Riewoldt to return to his best form after a month of not showing much.
Richmond’s quality is in the form of its much-publicised younger brigade that includes, along with Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin and Brett Deledio.
But in reality, if Richmond is to win, lesser-lights like Tyrone Vickery and Jayden Post will need to stand up, while more experienced types like Jake ‘push-up’ King and Captain Chris Newman lead by example.
I’m going to tip an upset tonight and go for the Tigers. I’m going to cite Essendon’s injuries, poor record at the MCG (0-4-1 this year) and poor match-up record with the Tigers (2-4 since ’08) as the main reasons.
The Bombers take in an awesome performance and probably more quality than Richmond, especially when fit, but I want to see Essendon repeat dose and more particularly, win well at the MCG, before I announce their return as a finals contender.
Richmond by four points.
Teams
Essendon
B: Mark McVeigh, Dustin Fletcher, Michael Hibberd
HB: Kyle Hardingham, Tayte Pears, Dyson Heppell
C: Brent Prismall, Brent Stanton, Kyle Reimers
HF: Jake Melksham, Michael Hurley, Leroy Jetta
F: David Zaharakis, Stewart Crameri, Patrick Ryder
Foll: David Hille, Heath Hocking, Ben Howlett
I/C: Ricky Dyson, Angus Monfries, Alwyn Davey, Travis Colyer
Emg: Henry Slattery, Tom Bellchambers, Jake Carlisle
In: Ricky Dyson
Out: Andrew Welsh (Hamstring)
Richmond
B: Chris Newman, Alex Rance, Luke McGuane
HB: Brett Deledio, Will Thursfield, Bachar Houli
C: Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Shane Edwards
HF: Robin Nahas, Ben Griffiths, Bradley Helbig
F: Reece Conca, Jack Riewoldt, Jake King
Foll: Tyrone Vickery, Daniel Jackson, Nathan Foley
I/C: Jayden Post, Tom Hislop, Shaun Grigg, Jake Batchelor
Emg: Angus Graham, Shane Tuck, Mitchell Farmer
In: Luke McGuane, Reece Conca
Out: Andrew Browne (Hip), Mitchell Farmer
LAST TIME: Richmond 16.9 (105) d Essendon 13.11 (89), Rnd 9, 2011, MCG
PAST FIVE: Essendon 2 Richmond 3
RECORD OVERALL: Essendon 100 Richmond 84 draw 4
AT THIS GROUND: Essendon 28 Richmond 26 draw 1
SINCE 2000: Essendon 11 Richmond 10
BETTING: Essendon $1.50 Richmond $2.55