The past two years have seen the same four teams finish top four and the same four teams contest the preliminary finals. It’s time for someone to crash the party, and the best team to do that is Hawthorn.
Yes, the Hawks have spent the two years since their 2008 premiership failing to meet any hype attached to them.
Yes, the backline and ruck department have both looked fairly ordinary in that time and yet another premiership player – Campbell Brown – has left the club.
But consider a few other facts. Consider that in the second half of last year, the Hawks beat Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs, drew with St Kilda and narrowly lost to Geelong. They have shown they can mix it with the best.
Consider that the recruiting strategy over the past two years has heavily featured attempts to bolster the back and ruck stocks. This year alone has seen the club add Cameron Bruce (who can go back) and David Hale (who can play ruck), along with Kyle Cheney and mature-age recruit Paul Puopolo (who are both defenders).
Consider that only one senior player is on the injury list – even if it is Luke Hodge – and the injury curse appears over. Certainly, it’s a lot better than starting the season without Cyril Rioli, Shaun Burgoyne, Brad Sewell, Chance Bateman, Clinton Young and a number of rucks (as was the situation last year).
Consider that Alastair Clarkson has acknowledged the club did not move with the game tactically post-2008 and expected the same methods would deliver them success. A new game plan in 2011 will help address this glaring concern.
Consider that both Buddy Franklin and Rioli are set for big years, with the former set to return to Coleman Medal contention and the latter set for even more improvement. Having two of the game’s superstars on fire will, obviously, help immensely.
This Hawthorn team has a lot going for it. Even just one of the above factors – the lack of any noticeable injury worries – is enough to think that this year will be different the two that preceded it, but all of the factors combined makes it hard to picture the Hawks finishing anywhere other than top four.
The backline is often knocked, with the biggest concern being the lack of genuine key defenders, players who can handle the big opposition forwards. This isn’t something we should be too critical of, however.
That’s partly because between Stephen Gilham, Ben Stratton, Josh Gibson and Ryan Shoenmakers, there are plenty of options. But it’s also because in the second half of last year, when the team was performing well and Gibson was uninjured, opposition key forwards weren’t that much of an issue.
Barry Hall was kept to two goals in Round 14. James Podsiadly could only score two a week later. Travis Cloke and Chris Dawes had just two goals between them in Round 22.
It wasn’t like that every week, sure, but it would be crazy to think the Hawks’ key defender stocks will keep them out of the top four.
The midfield is among the league’s best thanks to the presence of Hodge, Sam Mitchell, Burgoyne and Sewell. There’s depth there, too, thanks to Clinton Young, Rioli, Jordan Lewis, Bruce, Bateman and youngsters like Liam Shiels and Isaac Smith.
Up forward, it’s Franklin and Jarryd Roughead. We all know what they’re capable of.
To be fair, if Rioli spends more time up the ground, then support may be a concern. However, the main two targets had 117 goals between them last year and both are capable of better figures, so maybe it won’t be an issue at all.
Finally, in the ruck, for once, there are no excuses. Hale’s been brought in, Max Bailey is fit, Brent Renouf is still around. For the first time in a long time, the only problem with the Hawks’ ruck department is who to leave out.
It’s hard to see the same four teams making the top four three years in a row. In fact, it’s strange enough having the same teams two years in a row. There will be space for a team – possibly teams – to move in on the territory currently owned by Collingwood, St Kilda, Geelong and the Western Bulldogs.
Hawthorn, all things considered, are capable of stepping up. They certainly look more capable than any other team and for this, they should be a major factor come September.