Injuries are renowned for ruining seasons for certain teams, but when a club finds itself in a situation where the team’s success is dependent on the health of one player, they’re in deep trouble.
Injuries this year to Jonathan Brown, Brian Lake, Jobe Watson and Aaron Sandilands, have shown the fragility of clubs whose structures falter in star-absence.
The injury to Daniel Merritt has shortened Brisbane’s hopes of avoiding a wooden spoon furthermore.
Looking at Collingwood and Geelong, there has not been a sole dependence on one single player and therefore, an even spread across the team has led to premiership success.
This is a no-brainer.
Taking a look at each team, let’s assess the dependence on one or two players from each team and rank the team between 0-10. Ten being an ideal spread and 0 being dire straits.
Adelaide – Ben Rutten – 7
Brisbane – Jonathan Brown/Daniel Merritt – 2
Carlton – Chris Judd/Michael Jamieson – 8
Collingwood – Darren Jolly – 10
Essendon – Jobe Watson – 4
Fremantle – Aaron Sandilands – 5
Geelong – Harry Taylor – 9
Gold Coast – Gary Ablett – 5
Hawthorn – Josh Gibson – 5
Melbourne – James Frawley – 6
North Melbourne – Andrew Swallow/Drew Petrie – 5
Port Adelaide – Troy Chaplin – 0
Richmond – Jack Rewoldt – 6
St Kilda – Nick Rewoldt – 4
Sydney – Adam Goodes – 6
West Coast – Matt Priddis – 8
Western Bulldogs – Brian Lake – 6
The teams who scored low are either proven failures in the absence of their key player or they simply have weak depth afterwards. With draft luck the way it is today, I suspect it would take three to five years to turn a <2 team into a 7+.
What’s more interesting though is the lack of dependence Adelaide, West Coast and Carlton have on a single player. By my theory, Adelaide should be a lot higher on the ladder than at present which is unfortunately a reflection on Neil Craig and not the players.
The Adelaide list is not old either. They are potentially one superstar player away from being a top four contender. Lucklessly, the Richard Tambling acquisition has not panned out how they hoped.
The huge risers are Melbourne, Richmond and Fremantle which means the AFL draft system is once again proving successful in terms of rebuilding fledging lists.
West Coast and Carlton have used the infamous Judd transaction to even out their depth to be top four contenders this year.
To win a premiership, a complete on field effort is required which is where Essendon and Hawthorn look the most restricted this year. Hawthorn has already experienced this in 2009 with the Trent Croad gap near impossible to replace in such a short period of time.
Yet take a convincing victory against a top four side, do not overestimate Hawthorn’s position on the ladder.
As for Port Adelaide and Brisbane, Port must retire/scrap/trade Chad Kornes, Kane Kornes, Daniel Motlop, Steven Salopek and Jacob Surgen at the end of the year. A Mark Harvey youth policy is the only option.
They’d save on player payments too!
Brisbane has the luxury of a ready-to-go midfield who have replaced the previous era’s ‘Fab-4’. Jonathon Brown will not play in another premiership for Brisbane but they are still two or three years ahead of Port.
After being robbed of Michael Rischitelli and Jarred Brennan, retaining Matthew Luenberger will be the key to Brisbane’s chances of rising back up the ladder.
Moving on Amon Buchanan, Jamie Charman, Xavier Clarke and Andrew Raines should be on the agenda.
List managers are unenviable positions when things go wrong but the surprise resignation of Chris Pelchan from Hawthorn last week is a golden opportunity to snap up a proven manager.
Depth is the key to success but when it doesn’t exist, things will go horribly wrong.